Alliance... » The Bears were extremely healthy in 2018

Josh Jackson Color Rush Jersey , while the Packers were not so fortunate." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesAcme Packing Company homepageHorizontal - WhiteAcme Packing Companya Green Bay Packers communityFollow Acme Packing Company online:Follow Acme Packing Company on TwitterFollow Acme Packing Company on FacebookFollow Acme Packing Company on InstagramLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchAcme Packing Company main menuFanpostsFanshotsSectionsPackersOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCDTShare this storyShare this on FacebookShare this on TwitterShareAll sharing optionsShareAll sharing options for:Examining Adjusted Games Lost can help explain the NFC North in 2018TwitterFacebookRedditPocketFlipboardEmailWisconsin-USA TODAY NETWORKA cliché among sports fans is that injuries are not an excuse for losing, but in truth, injuries are in fact a very good excuse. In fact, having your good players unavailable and replacing them with worse players makes a team noticeably worse, and almost nothing correlates better with winning than injury rate. Of course, not all injuries are created equally. If your backup running back is injured, it really doesn’t matter. If your starting quarterback is hurt, it matters a great deal. Every year, Football Outsiders publishes Adjusted Games Lost (AGL), which attempts to account both for the quality of injured players as well as for players who may be playing while hurt. And it works pretty well. When the Green Bay Packers went 12-4 in 2014, they were the third-healthiest team in the league. When they went 8-7-1 the previous season, they ranked 30th. Aaron Rodgers was obviously a big part of that 2013 season, but that’s what AGL is designed to catch.It will no doubt interest you to know that the Chicago Bears were the third-healthiest team by AGL last season, which greatly contributed to their success in 2018. The Packers were, for the second consecutive season, 21st, which went a long way to undermining their efforts. The Bears’ health was a huge improvement over four consecutive seasons of ranking no higher than 27th. That’s a big jump, and while some regression is likely for Chicago, injury luck isn’t totally random. In fact, one of the biggest predictors of future injuries is previous injuries. In 2019, the most likely outcome is the Packers landing around 21st again, and the Bears falling to something like 10th. In the AGL era (going back to 2010) the Packers are one of the most injured teams in football, with an average of 78 AGL per season https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Montravius-Adams-Jersey , 7th-worst since their Super Bowl season. (Big thanks to APC’s Jon Meerdink for compiling historical data.) The team had a small spat of health in 2014 (3rd) and 2015 (9th), but they’ve collapsed back into the lower third of the league more recently, and their results have reflected that. Research by Football Outsiders also shows that wide receivers, tight ends, offensive lineman, and especially defensive backs have seen a spike in injuries lately, and you can see it in the Packers. Their secondary has been a virtual hospital ward, and both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were consistently missing time or playing hurt over the past three seasons.Geronimo Allison’s injury last season did as much to hurt the Packer passing attack as anything else.Corners in particular are both extremely important to a team’s overall health and extremely injury prone, and if you don’t have too many, you don’t have enough. To the extent that the Packers have struggled in the Rodgers era, it’s DB health that has played an extraordinarily large role, and while recent drafts focusing on the position have varied widely in terms of success, the approach is a smart one. The good news is that, at least on defense, the Packers have stocked the secondary with high draft picks and pure athletes. While their depth is admittedly raw and Kevin King is a dicey proposition, they are in much better shape than the days where Ladarius Gunter was forced to match up with Julio Jones in a playoff game. If your team is likely to suffer injuries, you need depth where it counts.The defending NFC North champion Bears also have some depth issues. Even if they don’t experience a huge decline in injury luck, if any member of their front four should get hurt, they will have a huge drop-off to their backups. The Bears have traded away a lot of draft picks, and while they’ve turned many of those picks into legit stars like Mack, it has had a negative impact on their depth. The Packers have their vulnerabilities, especially in the receiving corps, but they actually have decent defensive depth at this point. The Bears will likely be more injured than they were in 2018 Jake Ryan Jersey , and that may open the door just enough for a challenger. Aaron Jones proved right those Green Bay Packers fans who had been pining that he needs to get the ball more frequently.It’s also been established, with irrefutable, undeniable, completely concrete evidence that Jamaal Williams is a more than capable blocker.Both Jones and Williams are good pass catchers and good runners, with Jones having a good advantage in that capacity. The problem, much like the problem the Golden State Warriors faced when Kevin Durant signed, is that there’s only one ball.So what is a team with two good running backs to do?Put them on the field at the same time.It’s not that simple, of course; opposing teams won’t suddenly fall over like a bunch of fainting goats when they see 30 & 33 in the backfield.Luckily for Green Bay, their new head coach happens to have some experience running an offense with a pair of talented running backs. To the film!Last year, the Tennessee Titans, under the direction of offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, didn’t use two backs all that often and when they did they used similar backfield action.By keeping the same action but running different plays, the linebackers can’t sell out in any one direction or else they run the risk of getting exposed.If they blitz toward the first handoff? Read option to the backside or pull the ball and throw it to a middle route receiver.If they hesitate in their stances? Run it toward the edge and beat them to the spot, or run it at them and pick up at least an easy four yards.In our first clip, the Titans chose the last option.Tennessee has Derrick Henry to Marcus Mariota’s right and Dion Lewis to his left in the shotgun formation, with a tight end to the left.The opposing Philadelphia Eagles have their defensive strength to the weak side of the formation with four box defenders to the offense’s right and three to the left (with the middle linebacker directly in the middle).Mariota motions the left receiver in, and his defender follows but stays 8 yards off the line of scrimmage.This is an easy call for Mariota to make, as there are more blockers than defenders, so Tennessee runs to their left.There’s a twist of course; a fake handoff to Lewis running right freezes the linebackers and both #2 and #3 in red bite on the fake to Lewis, removing themselves from the play.That allows the TE and LT to combo on the DE, and the LG and C to combo block the DT.Both the LT and C then move to the second level to pickup the linebackers.The only unblocked box defender is Brandon Graham, circled and highlighted; he’s the furthest away from the play on the LOS, meaning he has the longest route to make a play on the ball and can also get held by the fake to Lewis.It turns out that Graham did end up making the play and read it as well as anyone could have Lance Kendricks Color Rush Jersey , but Tennessee still got three easy yards with room for a lot more if Graham doesn’t make the play he did.As a quick aside; you can also run this to the other side from the same formation just as easily if the Eagles had the left side stacked instead of the right; just have Henry perform the fake and hand it off to Lewis after a simple switch call at the line.Earlier in the game, Tennessee used its mobile quarterback out of this formation only with a TE to the right.The Eagles knew Tennessee is a run first team, so they come out with a nickel formation but 8 in the box.Using Philadelphia’s aggressiveness against them, the backfield motion is to down block on the line and fake to Henry left to right in order to really sell that handoff.It was sold well because it was a read option.Dion Lewis acts as either a) cutback blocker for Henry, or b) lead blocker for Mariota on the keeper. It’s not a play I want Aaron Rodgers running regularly, but it’s something that could be utilized on third-and-one, when we’ve seen Rodgers run in the past.So now we know we can run with two backs. What about passing?Well this next clip should look pretty familiar; it uses the exact same backfield motion and nearly identical blocking, and was called immediately after Mariota’s run. Fool me once, shame on you — fool me twice, shame on me; the Eagles were definitely feeling some shame here.Here’s the diagram, with the coverages in red. See if you can spot the open area:Deep middle, a fan favorite for long bombs.The Eagles go with an inverted cover 2 with the cornerbacks having the deep halves; smartly, the bottom receiver goes inside the zone and behind the safety and finds himself wide open.Notice the Air Raid themes here; the top receiver has the option, depending on the coverage, to cut the route short and run a comeback or go over the top if he has a step; Eagles went soft, so he cut it back.The bottom receiver also has the same choice; if there was a deep safety, instead of running his route into the coverage, he would sink down in front of it. The idea, on its surface, is simple; run to where they aren’t.That’s more frustrating than having a phone without a headphone jack.This next clip takes advantage of personnel and gets your good route-running back in space against an overmatched defender.When you bring both backs on the field, some defenses counter with a linebacker or heavy safety.The Eagles wisely stayed in a Nickel formation, but the outside coverages were soft enough that Tennessee saw an advantage anyway.We’ve seen this before; two RBs, one TE.The Titans then motion Lewis to the left slot.Not catching the Eagles by surprise https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Davon-House-Jersey , cornerback Sidney Jones follows him across the formation.Luckily for Tennessee, he gives Lewis too much cushion.A simple out route gets an easy three yards; if the throw was sooner and in a better spot, Lewis has room to run.So far we’ve got an inside zone, read option, play-action pass, and a motion to quick out. All of these are generally considered standard at this point. What is a common play in the NFL that isn’t on that list? The screen pass.I previously highlighted a few new formations and plays that Matt LaFleur can bring to the Green Bay Packers, and the final clip in that article was a fake jet sweep fake dive TE screen.I really enjoy the numerous fakes and non traditional motions, so its only fitting that the 2 RB screen game comes with its own quirks.Putting Dion Lewis in ‘orbit’ or ‘rocket’ motion (a deep, behind the quarterback motion as opposed to Jet motion which is close to the LOS) to Mariota’s right side gets the defense’s eyes wandering that way as the ball is snapped. To really sell the fake, Mariota turns and pump fakes to Lewis as soon as he gets the ball.The linemen hold their blocks for a second longer than a typical screen pass to give Mariota enough time and get the pass rushers up field, while Derrick Henry sneaks in behind them to the left.The motion and fake take defenders out of the play without having to allocate any blockers to them*.(*Note: A quick adjustment I would make is to have the bottom WR sprint inside at the snap to block a safety/lingering linebacker to allow the screen man to cut back inside, especially against zone coverage or teams that ball watch too much.)After the pump, Mariota pivots left and lays it off to Henry with blockers established.Another good read by both a DT and CB turn this into a loss; if Henry is more patient in his route he could have caught it behind his guard with more room in the middle of the field, but the design is there for something big.Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams could operate as either back; Williams is the better blocker and Jones the better runner and receiver, but smart play design can put them both to use.And even if the Packers wanted to use Williams as a true fullback and have him lead block for Jones, they can! In fact, they already did in 2018 (s/o to fellow APC writer Jon Meerdink for the play memory).And of course, some sweet, sweet slow-mo:It’s past theoretical at this point.Green Bay has two quality running backs without signing Le’Veon Bell, and a new playbook could make both of their stocks rise even further.